May 17, 2012

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25 Things Facebook Could Have Bought Instead of Instagram

Instagram LogoWhen the news hit that Facebook had purchased Instagram for $1 billion I was eating lunch with my Fantuition cofounder Joe Garstka.

Joe’s immediate reaction was “Would you rather have 200 $5 million dollar houses, or Instagram?”

A great question. For the record, I think Facebook paying $1 billion to take out their most threatening future competitor was worth it no matter what happens to Instagram within Facebook’s control. Just think about how better positioned Yahoo! would be today had it acquired Facebook for $1 billion back when they almost did a few years ago. Yahoo! could have either leveraged Facebook to massive success, or killed Facebook off and they’d still own more of the consumer and advertising market they’ve lost to Facebook.

Whether you agree or not, that’s still a lot of money. What could Facebook have bought instead of Instagram? Let’s explore…

  1. 200 $5 million houses in Palo Alto
  2. 1,000 $1 million houses
  3. A used B-2 Bomber
  4. The New York Times Company (valued at $967 Million)
  5. All 66 of the most recent YCombinator Startups (gotta be a breakout startup in there right?)
  6. Yahoo!’s Core US Business
  7. AOL’s Patent Portfolio
  8. All the Facebook Mafia Companies: Path, Quora, Asana, Causes, GoodRx
  9. Yelp (when the stock drops a little)
  10. Every other mobile photo or video sharing application
  11. Pinterest (maybe)
  12. Foursquare
  13. AppNexus
  14. Spotify
  15. Rovio (Angry Birds)
  16. Gilt Groupe
  17. Tumblr
  18. 2 million of the New iPads
  19. Myspace, Friendster, Orkut, Bebo, and you’d still have about $990M in cash leftover
  20. The San Francisco 49ers (change name to San Francisco Likes)
  21. A small country (How about the Maldives?)
  22. A $20,000 hotel room every night for 137 years
  23. Ten $100M yachts (one for each of Zuckerberg’s direct reports!)
  24. Pay for 48 hours of the military activity against Afghanistan and Iraq
  25. Send a $20 bill to all 50 million Instagram user bribing them to use Facebook’s mobile app for photo sharing

If you were Facebook, would you buy any of those things instead of Instagram?

Bon Iver Live Session is Just Pure Music

I jumped on the Bon Iver bandwagon a couple of years ago thanks to the Hype Machine helping me discover Justin Vernon and the rest of his band right after their debut album was just beginning to get buzz.

Another album and a couple of years of solid listening later, including an amazing live concert at Edgefield near Portland, and I’m still as excited about Bon Iver as ever.

While it’s not the full band, this live session of Justin Vernon and bandmatte Sean Carey intimately captures how amazing they are. It’s the kind of thing you watch and just wish you had that kind of talent. Enjoy.

The Story of Fantuition

Fantuition Home Page

Post Summary:
We just launched a new web experience for Fantuition. Check it out and play some of our prediction games for topics you love. For the back story on Fantuition, keep reading…

A Change of Course
About a year after starting up a company to take on the problem of local recommendations called GuideMe, it became clear that we hadn’t generated the amount of user traction we had hoped and we didn’t have the path to get there. We made the decision to end our development on GuideMe in September.

Even though GuideMe as a product had failed, the team and our great investors still had a desire to work together and take another crack at a different problem. We took a step back and opened our eyes to look at numerous problems and opportunities that could have been interesting to pursue. However, I couldn’t get past one idea that had been in my mind for a few years.

The Problem
Duck FansEveryone who knows me is aware that I’m a big sports fan, and more specifically an Oregon Ducks fan.

Over the years I’d played fantasy football/basketball/baseball/golf, various pick’em games, March Madness pools, and other assorted games. Like many sports fans, these fantasy games provided me an additional way to engage with the sports I was already watching.

All was not perfect though, as I found that there were two major problems for me with the fantasy sports experience.

  1. Amount of Time Required – In order to succeed at most fantasy games you need to spend a significant amount of time researching players, analyzing matchups, scouting the waiver wire, reading news, and managing your roster. Some players who have a lot of free time actually enjoy this, but there is a large percentage of fantasy players who don’t have the time. Additionally, so many sports fans I know don’t play fantasy sports specifically due to this time commitment.
  2. Caring About All Teams – The other major issue I’ve had with fantasy sports is that while I follow the full league action, I tend to only focus and watch the teams I actually care about. For example, in the NBA I primarily follow the Portland Trailblazers. When I play fantasy basketball I will have 0-1 Blazers on my fantasy team, which really doesn’t tie into my personal fan passion for the team.

The Solution
These two frustrations led me to question why there wasn’t a simpler game to play that could also be focused on specific teams. Why can’t I play a game based on just the Oregon Ducks or the Portland Trailblazers? And why can’t I play with more than just nine other people in my league?

Obviously a simpler game focused on one team wouldn’t work in the traditional “manage a roster” fantasy format, and I wanted something that required less time, so the game itself needed to be totally different.

In thinking deeper about this, it became clear that fans of a specific team talk about and predict a pretty consistent set of questions. Who’s going to win this weekend? What’s the final score going to be? Which player is going to have a great game? Player X had a great game last week, will he keep it up?

Turning these questions into a game seemed to make total sense to me. We’re already talking about these questions with each other, so let’s actually compete around who can predict the upcoming game the best!

This basic idea to create a simple prediction game for specific teams had been rolling around in my head for a few years. I wanted to make it quick, fun, social, and let people feel like they are engaging with their team and fanbase. However, it had never gotten past the concept phase.

When the opportunity to revisit this idea came up after shutting GuideMe down, the changed internet landscape had seen casual game success and monetization, the rise of mobile time killing, and “2nd screen” mobile usage for TV watching. The time seemed ripe to strike, and with the additional ideas from our investors and Joe (the rest of the team) we quickly built a mobile web prototype called Fantuition in late October.

Fantuition GamesIt was clear right away that playing Fantuition in a very basic form for Oregon Ducks Football was a lot of fun for us and our close friends. We cared more about the games we were watching, we could discuss our predictions socially, and we were learning more about our favorite team. It wasn’t long before people we didn’t know were signing up, and users were suggesting that the format would work for other sports and their favorite reality TV shows.

Fast forward a couple of months and we’ve got a lot more users, a third employee, a number of different games going, a full website, and a ton of ideas about where to take the product and games that we need to go execute.

The ability to play casual social games about all the teams we care about, the reality TV shows we watch, and the award shows or other non-scripted special events we attend needs to exist. So we’re building it.

Give the new Fantuition site a try and send us some feedback.

Oregon Ducks: 2012 Rose Bowl Champs!

Oregon Ducks 2012 Rose Bowl Champions
It’s been a long time since I last posted, and yes I still use Batch as a photosharing app, but it seemed like the Oregon Ducks winning their first Rose Bowl in 95 years was a worthwhile occasion.

It was an amazing game against Wisconsin, and the Ducks continued to push the envelope with their explosive offense and style. Great season. Go Ducks!

Batch Is a Very Nice Photo Sharing App

Batch ScreenshotI’ve tried out just about every iPhone photo sharing app, and many of them are quite good. I’ve mostly been attached to Instagram due to the ease of use, design, and the biggest user base means I have more people to follow and to share photos with.

One of the biggest problems with photo sharing apps so far is that they all tend to only allow you to share one photo at a time. While this keeps the quality of photos shared high, it creates some problems.

It’s a painful process if you want to share multiple photos from an event, as part of a theme, or just to get photos off your phone and put them in a place they can be shared without the painful process of downloading them to a computer and then uploading them somewhere.

Tonight Mike Arrington broke the news that the team at self-photo taking startup DailyBooth recently launched a photo sharing app called Batch for the iPhone.

I downloaded Batch and immediately loved it for the following reasons:

  • The design is beautiful. I love the handwritten instructions that overlay the screen in certain areas, and it walks you through how to use the application really well.
  • Uploading photos in a batch is great. The first time I got to touch multiple photos and have them uploaded at once I saw the value in the speed and simplicity of sharing the photos in a batch.
  • Automatic friend connection via Facebook makes it nice to not have to worry about building up my social graph. As friends join Batch, we’ll just get connected. Simple. This has some downsides in that you can’t customize who you follow or don’t follow yet, but I prefer it over having to start from scratch and manually choose everything and hope my friends find me.
  • You can see the future potential if batches from one event or location are grouped automatically and viewable together. It could nicely fulfill the promise of Color that never came to be.

If you have an iPhone and share photos, give Batch a try in the app store.

Best Startup PostMortem Yet – GameLayers

GameLayers Spending

Every entrepreneur and investor takes something different away from shutting down a company. I’m glad to see more people are choosing transparency and dialoge to share unfiltered experiences and extract lessons to be learned. The startup ecosystem is better off as a result. – Bryce Roberts

I posted recently about how much there is to be learned from the stories of startups failing. As investor Bryce Roberts from OATV points out, this postmortem from former OATV investment GameLayers is very detailed with a wealth of knowledge.

There’s personal stories, videos, pitch decks, charts, and pictures that really take you through the ups and downs of the GameLayers startup experience. It’s definitely a worthwhile read.

Why Is Google Even Involved In The Yahoo! Acquisition Talks?

'YAHOO in 2001.' photo (c) 2007, gaku. - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

There’s been numerous news reports about Google considering “buying” Yahoo!, or at least teaming up with private equity companies to do so.

While most of the articles at least mention in passing that it’d be unlikely for this to pass government review, I haven’t seen many people actually discuss why Google is involved.

Why wouldn’t a Google acquisition of Yahoo! pass government review? Well, if the Department of Justice wouldn’t pass the search deal that Google and Yahoo! worked up in 2008 where SOME of Yahoo!’s search results were powered by Google, then why would they actually let Google take part in buying all of Yahoo!?

In fact, many thought that Google knew in 2008 it wouldn’t pass government review, but tried to do the deal just so Yahoo! would turn down Microsoft and waste a lot of Yahoo!’s internal time (and it worked). I sat in many meetings at Yahoo! that were spent talking about the tests we were running with Google and how we were going to implement the deal.

There hasn’t been enough change in search market share for anyone to seriously even think it could pass. I’m not entirely sure if Google being only part of an ownership group with private equity firms would change the government’s view, but I doubt it.

Which leaves us asking, why is anyone even taking Google’s interest seriously?

I can’t answer why anyone is taking Google seriously, besides the fact that they are one of the only players who actually have the cash to do something around Yahoo!.

'Red flags' photo (c) 2004, Rutger van Waveren - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/It just seems like any major involvement on there part is going to just raise big red flags with the governments of the world and will never pass “go”.

Why would Google get involved then?

I feel like there are two obvious answers to this one.

  1. Google can pretend to at least have interest in Yahoo! to draw out how quickly something happens here. The more time Yahoo! is in limbo, and the more time Microsoft spends figuring out what to do about it, the better that is for Google to continue to separate itself from them.
  2. Google can go as far as even floating prices out there to try and get others (Microsoft) to feel like they have to pay more in order to get Yahoo!. The more money someone spends on Yahoo!, the better that is for Google.

I suppose it is possible that Google really does want to keep Yahoo! out of Microsoft’s hands, but it seems like Microsoft having to acquire and digest Yahoo! would just allow Google to accelerate ahead even further ahead. It’s all just a ruse to waste time by complicating matters and drive up the price. Well played Google.

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